Published: August 15, 2009 12:36 pm      

Interest growing in Senate special election

Organization, money and personal relationship may make the difference

GREENUP — Interest is growing in an Aug. 25 special election in the 18th State Senate District, much of it from outside this northeast Kentucky rural district.

“Things are beginning to heat up,” said Bobby Carpenter, county judge/executive of Greenup County. “Both sides are really working it now.”

Greenup is the most populous of the six counties in the district where Democrat Robin Webb, Republican Dr. Jack Ditty and Independent Guy E. Gibbons Jr. want to succeed Charlie Borders, who resigned his Senate seat to become a member of the Public Service Commission. The others counties are Bracken, Carter, Lewis, Mason and Robertson.

At stake could be the first step in changing majority control of the Senate from Republican to Democrat, passage of expanded gambling, and maybe even re-drawing congressional districts.

The two major party candidates – Webb and Ditty – are each expected to spend $250,000 or more. Ditty filed a campaign report 32 days before the election which showed he raised about $30,000, but Webb didn’t report during that period. Both must report by Monday and each is expected to show contributions from outside the district, including party activists and those supporting or opposing expanded gambling. (Gibbons’ most recent finance report shows he’s only raised about $630 and he has run a limited campaign.)

Webb and Ditty have both brought in party heavy weights to help – U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell for Ditty and Gov. Steve Beshear on Webb’s behalf.

Ditty, a Greenup County dermatologist, has tried to make the race about health care. Webb, a state representative who serves on the budget committee, touts her experience. Ditty opposes allowing slots at horse tracks; Webb voted for the measure in the House before it died in the Senate. The Republican Party of Kentucky is active too, running ads about Webb and questioning her values.

But it may come down to personal politics and turnout in this largely rural district. As Webb said to prospective voters while going door-to-door Wednesday in Greenup, “It’s an odd time for an election.”

“If we get 10 percent we’ll be lucky,” said Lewis County Republican Judge/Executive Steve Applegate. Carpenter, a Democrat who supports Webb, predicted between 10 and 15 percent in Greenup County.

“It’s important to turn out the vote in a special election because no one is thinking about voting in August,” said Steve Robertson, RPK Chairman.

Political consultants think a strong get out the vote effort can mean two to three points, maybe more in a low turnout special election.

Webb is also banking on her long community presence in Carter and Lewis counties. One of her supporters, Rhea Evans, 23, said she can’t remember a time when Webb wasn’t at Little League games or 4-H events. Republican Applegate said Webb is popular in Lewis County, part of her House district and a place she often hunted and fished as a child with her father..

Ditty lives in the most populous county and he’s well known from his medical practice and involvement in youth sports activities. He talks almost exclusively about health care but sometimes adds he’s against expanded gambling.

Johnny Cox, 46, of Warnock, is a registered Republican, farmer and part-time construction worker who agrees with Ditty that government run health care isn’t the answer. But he thinks something needs to change.

“Seems like every year, coverage goes down and the premiums go up,” said Cox whose insurance is through his wife’s job as a school teacher. He opposes gambling – “All that’s going to help is the horse industry.”

Republican Marcia Grayson isn’t sure who she’ll vote for, but she favors expanded gambling.

“They need better paying jobs in this county,” said Grayson, a clerk in a Vanceburg convenience store. “I think the gambling, if it domes, will help with jobs.”

So, it may come down to personal relationships and history.

“Ditty is a good fellow,” said Ernie West, a Greenup County Democrat. “But I don’t know if he can beat her.”

Joe Ratliff, “a Republican and proud of it,” opposes gambling but thinks Webb is better known and may be tough to beat.

The Republican Party is running an ad criticizing Webb for signing a letter seeking a death sentence commutation for a man who committed a gruesome and violent rape and murder when he was a juvenile. She said she sought an end to execution of juveniles in Kentucky, something subsequently outlawed. One of her radio ads claims she voted for 32 tax cuts and opposed raising the gasoline tax. Robertson disputes the claims about tax cuts.

Maysville City Commissioner Kelly Ashley said Ditty has visited Mason County three times and Webb twice in the past couple of weeks. He said the county is 4-1 Democratic in registration, “but you can’t go by that, especially in a state election. It’s gone more Republican in the last 20 years.”

Ashley thinks more people in Mason County favor expanded gambling than oppose it – or at least they make more noise. And he and fellow commissioner Johnny Maines think the race is close in Mason County.

“I wouldn’t put a whole lot of money on it either way,” Maines said.

RONNIE ELLIS writes for CNHI News Service and is based in Frankfort. Reach him at rellis@cnhi.com.