Even population — 04/29/08

Sat, May 17 2008

— It’s a well established fact that the South is the fastest growing region in the United States. In the decade between 1997 and 2007, the population of the 16 states that make up the Southern Regional Education Board — including Kentucky — increased by 16.2 million, or 17.3 percent. Only the West — with a population increase of 10.8 million — had a higher percentage growth (17.8 percent) than the South during the decade.
However, Kentucky is not enjoying the same rate of growth that other southern states are enjoying. While the population of Florida, Georgia, Texas and North Carolina has soared in the past decade, Kentucky’s population growth has been much slower. And in the next 20 years, the population of Kentucky is projected to change little.
The reasons for Kentucky’s slower rate of growth should be obvious: While the climate in the Bluegrass State is not quite as mild as in the states more to the south, Kentucky’s slow rate of growth has more to do with the state’s economy than its weather. Simply put, people are moving to Georgia, North Carolina, Texas and Florida because that’s where the jobs are. A slow economy equals a slow rate of growth.
Kentucky’s population increased by 9 percent between 1997 and 2007, but the state’s population is expected to increase by only 3 percent during the next two decades. In that regards, Kentucky’s population trends more closely mirror states in the Northeast and Midwest than those is the South.
Once again it comes back to the economy. While Rust Belt states like Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania have lost tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs in the last 30 years, new jobs continue to be created in large numbers in states like North Carolina and Texas.
But it could be worse. The population of neighboring West Virginia actually declined by 2 percent during the 50 years between 1957 and 2007, and it is expected to lose about 4 percent between now and 2027.
While Kentucky’s rate of growth is expected to remain flat, more than half the nation’s population growth in the next 20 years is expected to be in the South. For states where growth is rapid, that means a need for more schools, more roads and more government programs, particularly those that target an aging population.
But in Kentucky, the only population group expected to grow in the next 20 years are our oldest residents. That means fewer children in school and more elderly residents in nursing homes — and new strains on tax dollars to provide essential services to an aging population.