Published: April 23, 2008 04:59 pm            

Still no winner — 04/24/08

The longer campaign goes on, more important state becomes

Sen. Hillary Clinton’s victory in Tuesday’s Pennsylvania primary increases the possibility of Kentucky’s May 20 primary playing a pivotal role in the selection in the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee. The longer this campaign continues, the more important Kentucky’s late primary becomes.

Back in January, all the political pundits — including us — expected that the presidential nominees for both parties would be known by the middle of February at the latest. Meanwhile, we lamented that Kentucky voters were left as spectators while residents of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and other states with early primaries chose the Republican and Democratic nominees for leader of the free world. With the nominees for both parties already having been chosen, we were sure than Kentucky’s primary in late May would be irrelevant as far as selecting the presidential nominees was concerned.

That still may happen. While the Clinton campaign lived to fight another day with the New York senator’s victory in Pennsylvania, the pundits now are saying that victories by Barack Obama in the Indiana and North Carolina primaries on May 6 would spell the end for the Clinton campaign.

That may happen, but if we have learned anything in the past 16 years, it is that every time you count a Clinton out — be it Bill or Hillary — they manage to make a comeback. Every time Hillary Clinton has faced a “must” win this year, she has secured it, beginning with New Hampshire in February and continuing in Ohio, Texas and now Pennsylvania. If Hillary Clinton wins one or both primaries on May 6, the Kentucky primary two weeks later will be important. That’s when will could see both Democratic senators shaking hands with ordinary folks in Ashland, Olive Hill and Sandy Hook.

That means that far more Democrats than Republicans are likely to vote in Kentucky’s primary. While we would never discourage anyone from voting, it is clear that Democrats have a lot more decisions to make in Kentucky’s primary than Republicans. While there is not a single race on the GOP ballot that many would consider competitive, area Democrats will be choosing their party’s nominees to run against U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell and U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis in November and for the 100th District seat in the Kentucky House of Representatives.

Because far more Democrats are expected to cast ballots on Nov. 20 than Republicans, it is wise not to read too much from the results in the non-partisan races. In short, the four candidates who garner the most votes for Ashland city commissioner in the primary may not finish n the top four in November when far more Republicans vote. The same can be said in the race for Ashland mayor.

But let’s face it, the races for U.S. Congress, the state legislature and local city commissions and councils have taken a back seat to the Democratic primary for president. That’s the first time that’s happened in Kentucky in many years.

        

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